Poland Set to ‘Quickly Overtake Britain in Military Strength And Income’

Britain is on course to becoming a ‘second tier’ European nation like Spain or Italy due to financial decrease and a weak military that weakens its effectiveness to allies, a specialist has alerted.

Research teacher Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE concluded in a damning new report that the U.K. has actually been paralysed by low financial investment, high tax and misguided policies that could see it lose its standing as a top-tier middle power at current development rates.

The plain assessment weighed that succeeding federal government failures in policy and drawing in investment had actually triggered Britain to lose out on the ‘industries of the future’ courted by developed economies.

‘Britain no longer has the commercial base to logistically sustain a war with a near-peer like Russia for more than two months,’ he wrote in The Henry Jackson Society’s newest report, Strategic Prosperity: The Case for Economic Growth as a National Security Priority.

The report assesses that Britain is now on track to fall behind Poland in terms of per capita earnings by 2030, and that the main European country’s military will soon exceed the U.K.’s along lines of both workforce and devices on the existing trajectory.

‘The concern is that when we are devalued to a second tier middle power, it’s going to be practically difficult to get back. Nations do not come back from this,’ Dr Ibrahim informed MailOnline today.

‘This is going to be sped up decrease unless we nip this in the bud and have bold leaders who have the ability to make the tough choices today.’

People pass boarded up stores on March 20, 2024 in Hastings, England

A British soldier refills his rifle on February 17, 2025 in Smardan, Romania

Staff Sergeant Rai uses a radio to talk to Archer crews from 19th Regiment Royal Artillery throughout a live fire range on Rovajärvi Training Area, throughout Exercise Dynamic Front, Finland

Dr Ibrahim invited the federal government’s decision to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, but warned much deeper, systemic issues threaten to irreversibly knock the U.K. from its position as a globally prominent power.

With a weakening commercial base, Britain’s effectiveness to its allies is now ‘falling back even second-tier European powers’, he cautioned.

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‘Not just is the U.K. predicted to have a lower GDP per capita than Poland by 2030, but likewise a smaller army and one that is unable to sustain implementation at scale.’

This is of particular issue at a time of increased geopolitical tension, with Britain pegged to be among the leading forces in Europe’s quick rearmament project.

‘There are 230 brigades in Ukraine right now, Russian and Ukrainian. Not a single European country to install a single heavy armoured brigade.’

‘This is a huge oversight on the part of subsequent federal governments, not just Starmer’s issue, of stopping working to buy our military and essentially outsourcing security to the United States and NATO,’ he informed MailOnline.

‘With the U.S. getting tiredness of offering the security umbrella to Europe, Europe now needs to stand on its own and the U.K. would have remained in a premium position to actually lead European defence. But none of the European countries are.’

Slowed defence spending and patterns of low productivity are absolutely nothing new. But Britain is now likewise ‘failing to change’ to the Trump administration’s jolt to the rules-based global order, said Dr Ibrahim.

The former advisor to the 2021 Integrated Defence and Security Review kept in mind in the report that in spite of the ‘weakening’ of the institutions when ‘protected’ by the U.S., Britain is reacting by harming the last vestiges of its military may and economic power.

The U.K., he said, ‘seems to be making significantly pricey gestures’ like the ₤ 9bn handover of the strategic Chagos Islands and opening talks on reparations for Caribbean Slavery.

The surrender of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean has actually been the source of much analysis.

Negotiations in between the U.K. and Mauritius were begun by the Tories in 2022, but a contract was announced by the Labour government last October.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute defence and security think thank alerted at the time that ‘the relocation shows worrying strategic ineptitude in a world that the U.K. government explains as being characterised by terrific power competition’.

Require the U.K. to supply reparations for its historic function in the slave trade were revived likewise in October last year, though Sir Keir Starmer said ahead of a conference of Commonwealth countries that reparations would not be on the program.

An Opposition 2 primary battle tank of the British forces throughout the NATO’s Spring Storm workout in Kilingi-Nomme, Estonia, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak throughout an interview in Warsaw, Poland, January 17, 2025

Dr Ibhramin assessed that the U.K. appears to be acting versus its own security interests in part due to a narrow understanding of threat.

‘We understand soldiers and missiles however stop working to completely envisage the threat that having no option to China’s supply chains may have on our capability to respond to military aggressiveness.’

He suggested a brand-new security model to ‘improve the U.K.’s tactical dynamism’ based on a rethink of migratory policy and risk evaluation, access to unusual earth minerals in a market controlled by China, and the prioritisation of energy security and independence through investment in North Sea gas and a long-overdue rethink on atomic energy.

‘Without instant policy changes to reignite growth, Britain will end up being a decreased power, reliant on more powerful allies and susceptible to foreign coercion,’ the Foreign Policy columnist said.

‘As international financial competitors magnifies, the U.K. should decide whether to embrace a vibrant development program or resign itself to permanent decrease.’

Britain’s dedication to the idea of Net Zero might be laudable, however the pursuit will hinder development and obscure strategic objectives, he warned.

‘I am not stating that the environment is not crucial. But we merely can not afford to do this.

‘We are a nation that has actually stopped working to invest in our economic, in our energy infrastructure. And we have substantial resources at our disposal.’

Nuclear power, consisting of using small modular reactors, could be a boon for the British economy and energy independence.

‘But we’ve stopped working to commercialise them and certainly that’s going to take a substantial quantity of time.’

Britain did introduce a brand-new funding model for nuclear power stations in 2022, which lobbyists including Labour political leaders had actually firmly insisted was essential to discovering the cash for expensive plant-building jobs.

While Innovate UK, Britain’s development company, has actually been declared for its grants for little energy-producing business in the house, business owners have actually warned a larger culture of ‘danger hostility’ in the U.K. stifles financial investment.

In 2022, incomes for the poorest 14 million individuals fell by 7.5%, per the ONS. Pictured: Waterlooville High Street, Waterlooville, Hants

Undated file photo of The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) or Chagos Islands

Britain has actually consistently failed to acknowledge the looming ‘authoritarian threat’, permitting the trend of managed decrease.

But the resurgence of autocracies on the world phase dangers even more weakening the rules-based global order from which Britain ‘benefits immensely’ as a globalised economy.

‘The threat to this order … has actually developed partially due to the fact that of the lack of a robust will to defend it, owing in part to ponder foreign efforts to overturn the acknowledgment of the true prowling threat they posture.’

The Trump administration’s warning to NATO allies in Europe that they will have to do their own bidding has gone some method towards waking Britain up to the urgency of investing in defence.

But Dr Ibrahim cautioned that this is insufficient. He prompted a top-down reform of ‘essentially our whole state’ to bring the ossified state back to life and sustain it.

‘Reforming the well-being state, reforming the NHS, reforming pensions – these are basically bodies that take up immense amounts of funds and they’ll just keep growing significantly,’ he informed MailOnline.

‘You might double the NHS budget plan and it will truly not make much of a damage. So all of this will require essential reform and will take a great deal of guts from whomever is in power because it will make them out of favor.’

The report outlines recommendations in extreme tax reform, pro-growth migration policies, and a restored focus on securing Britain’s function as a leader in modern industries, energy security, and global trade.

Vladimir Putin talks with the governor of Arkhangelsk area Alexander Tsybulsky during their conference at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

File picture. Britain’s financial stagnation could see it quickly end up being a ‘2nd tier’ partner

Boarded-up stores in Blackpool as more than 13,000 shops closed their doors for good in 2024

Britain is not alone in falling back. The Trump administration’s persistence that Europe pay for its own defence has cast fresh light on the Old Continent’s alarming situation after years of slow development and decreased spending.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research evaluated at the end of last year that Euro location financial efficiency has actually been ‘subdued’ since around 2018, illustrating ‘diverse challenges of energy reliance, making vulnerabilities, and shifting international trade characteristics’.

There remain extensive discrepancies in between European economies; German deindustrialisation has actually hit services tough and forced redundancies, while Spain has actually grown in line with its tourism-focused economy.

This remains vulnerable, however, with citizens significantly agitated by the viewed pandering to foreign visitors as they are priced out of affordable lodging and caught in low paying seasonal tasks.

The Henry Jackson Society is a and national security think thank based in the UK.

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